Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 22.260136 24.232345 26.369171 28.868525 31.727287 34.913788 38.760549
2025-10-05 19.130706 21.810112 24.920581 28.846037 33.737891 39.730910 47.787637
2025-10-12 17.037530 20.116213 23.886267 28.945031 35.722809 44.755057 58.201628
2025-10-19 15.608452 18.957867 23.243378 29.301400 37.954598 50.420375 70.935675
2025-10-26 14.313812 17.772326 22.353151 29.108117 39.288919 54.989007 83.336884
2025-11-02 13.252123 16.756112 21.533246 28.836886 40.377025 59.314961 96.698457
2025-11-09 12.441293 15.987238 20.948593 28.789106 41.739842 64.317662 113.148810
2025-11-16 11.712127 15.258253 20.331317 28.583136 42.764388 68.905993 130.687834
2025-11-23 11.078272 14.608092 19.758412 28.356899 43.683698 73.474717 150.401988
2025-11-30 10.519907 14.022211 19.223670 28.115940 44.513454 78.042047 172.681770
2025-12-07 10.064615 13.554350 18.826187 28.049650 45.641170 83.523470 201.211948
2025-12-14 9.622032 13.074413 18.367728 27.819503 46.400188 88.370486 231.503448
2025-12-21 9.463060 13.025927 18.608280 28.882016 50.025201 101.494017 306.782095
2025-12-28 9.058004 12.568675 18.144004 28.602693 50.772297 107.505426 360.823317
2026-01-04 8.735649 12.222784 17.839419 28.590473 52.115688 115.741369 440.507895
2026-01-11 8.493254 11.989575 17.706770 28.892530 54.243415 127.273650 567.364277
2026-01-18 8.186747 11.634434 17.337003 28.682740 55.109027 135.199084 693.466372
2026-01-25 7.893778 11.285943 16.955134 28.408581 55.770842 142.805069 848.111945
2026-02-01 7.655742 11.016088 16.694649 28.358115 57.006076 153.226031 1092.510959
2026-02-08 7.412263 10.724986 16.377064 28.155020 57.805032 162.462172 1395.963561
2026-02-15 7.182397 10.446089 16.064648 27.933008 58.520291 171.871427 1813.069783
2026-02-22 6.965324 10.179251 15.758795 27.696967 59.162473 181.475977 2404.417646
2026-03-01 6.783847 9.965434 15.539062 27.631984 60.302354 194.357381 3470.643781